According to a survey by Ideal BI Consulting, the Brazilian wine market showed signs of expansion and resilience in the first quarter of 2025. The total volume sold—combining domestic production and imports—reached 82.5 million liters, representing a 7% increase compared to the same period the previous year.

This growth was partially reflected in retail performance: sell-out sales rose by 2.4% in the still wine category and an impressive 10% in sparkling wines.

The sector’s financial turnover during the period was estimated at BRL 3.9 billion, with approximately 110 million bottles sold at an average price of BRL 35.06 per unit. Considering that the first quarter typically accounts for around 17% of annual volume, projections indicate that the market could surpass BRL 22 billion in revenue by the end of 2025.

Despite a challenging economic context, with high inflation and interest rates, the results are considered robust. According to Ideal BI, the sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real in 2024 may have created the conditions for a realignment in early 2025. Additional external factors—such as the expected interest rate cuts in the United States and a pause in trade disputes between the U.S. and China—have strengthened commodities and boosted foreign currency inflows into Brazil.

With the real gaining value, wine imports rose 14% in volume and 15% in value. Key supplier countries showed consistent growth: Chile (15% volume / 11% value), Argentina (14% / 22%), and Portugal (20% / 10%).

In contrast, domestic fine wine saw a negative performance, with a 3% drop in total volume, driven by a 16% decline in still wines, although sparkling wines grew by 9%. The competitive pressure from imports—especially among entry-level labels—increased, impacting prices and particularly affecting Chilean products and their Brazilian equivalents. In this scenario, brand building is becoming an increasingly strategic priority.

Despite the positive numbers, the main challenge remains improving profitability across the supply chain. The average consumer price of imported wines rose by 4%, matching the increase seen in domestic fine wines and just below the 5% rise in table wines. However, the multiplier index—which measures the margin between cost and sale price adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations—rose by only 1% compared to the last quarter of 2024, indicating stagnating margins even amid market growth.

One of the highlights of the period was the performance of white wines, which drove expansion with a 28% increase overall (including both domestic and imported labels). In South America, Chardonnay led consumer preferences, followed by Sauvignon Blanc and Chilean Moscato. In Europe, Portugal’s Vinho Verde region, France’s Burgundy, and Portugal’s Alentejo region stood out.

According to Ideal BI, the better-than-expected performance in the first quarter indicates resilience and a dose of cautious optimism. In a competitive market prone to instability, strategies such as channel diversification and strengthening of established brands are seen by the consultancy as essential to ensuring sustainable growth and long-term profitability. The ability to adapt and build a strong brand identity is proving to be more crucial than ever for success in the current landscape.

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